Oscar Nominations Announced

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Predicted: 4/5
I honestly thought that either WALL*E or The Dark Knight would get in, The Reader was my second spoiler. The Academy had the chance of nominating a film loved by critics and the people. They REALLY screwed up. Of this lineup, I'm only missing the likely winner, Slumdog. Milk would probably be my least favorite film from here, but no big mistake other than the exclusion of WALL*E and The Dark Knight. All of these are fine films, the only problem I would have is if Button or Milk end up winning.

Best Achievement in Directing
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Predicted: 3/5
I had Aronofsky and Nolan instead of Van Sant and Daldry. One of the most shocking snubs: Nolan. I would've bet that even if the film failed to score the BP nom, Nolan would make the cut. I suspected Daldry would get in if The Reader got in, I was right. He's got a perfect score so far with the Academy, expect him to become the next Eastwood. Unless one of the films gets lots of last minute buzz (urgently, Slumdog is getting further away each day), more likely Button's lots of nods get the film last minute powerful buzz, expect to see Slumdog rising on February the 22nd. No upsets here.  

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Predicted: 4/5
Nice to see Jenkins in, and no pity nom for Eastwood. It saddens me not to see DiCaprio, and it saddens me even more that Pitt got in over him. I had Eastwood over Pitt in my predictions, and I feel silly for believing Pitt wouldn't make it. Colin Farrell would've been an inspired choice , but his snub (and DiCaprio's) were expected. The other 4 are pretty good, and any of them would be worthy winners, but as you know, I'm cheering for Rourke. Pitt and Jenkins will not win. So we have 3 left: Langella, Rourke and Penn. Penn are Rourke are strong enough, whoever takes the SAG this Sunday will get the edge (I'm predicting Penn). Then, the only way Rourke might be back in shape to K.O. Penn will be if the BAFTA rewards him, which is possible but not likely. However, if this Rourke/Penn split continues, don't be surprised if the splitting votes end up and benefit the 3rd in line, Langella, rising with a surprise win only because the voters were too divided between Penn and Rourke.  

Best Actress in a Leading
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Predicted: 3.5/5
The bets are on, things have just completely changed. As expected, Hathaway, Jolie and Streep got in. Winslet also got in, as expected, however, it was a surprise for most of us to hear her name called for her work in The Reader, and being shut out for Revolutionary Road. Leo knocked out Hawkins, which is not what I predicted, but it's still not surprising. However, me thinks the exciting unpredictable race we've had all season long has just cleared up: Winslet's taking it (finally!). She no longer has to fear the problem of spliting votes with her other performance. The Reader got in for Picture and Director, she's the only one of the lineup with this advantage. With her awesome year, her baity role, no more vote plitting, likely BAFTA and SAG wins coming on her way, no big opponent (Lee, Hathaway and Streep may give her a run for her money but neither is strong enough this time to take it from her) and her film getting love I'll predict from today that this February 22nd Kate Winslet wins her first Oscar for an Actress in a Leading Role. The thing now is.....with Winslet out of the way, who's taking Supporting Actress?

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger,  The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Predicted: 4/5

No big surprises here. As expected Ledger got in, followed by his category partners all season long: Brolin, Downey Jr and Hoffman. The 5th slot was pretty open, so as long as Marsan, Shannon, Patel, Fiennes or Franco got in there would be no shocks. I thought that with the Slumdog love all around Patel would get pulled in. I guess Shannon will have to be Revolutionary's consolation prize. However, it's not as if the other 4 nominees matter, they're fillers, Ledger's got this one in the bag. He bulldozed the critic awards, he has the BFCA and the Globe now, and he's just missing the BAFTA and the SAG to collect before he stops at the Kodak Theatre for the big one. Unless one of the major 3 contenders miraclously takes both (yep, taking one of the two big awards left is not gonna be enough), Ledger might have someone threatening his win. But at this point (and with the Batman snub in Picture) it's just waiting time for Ledger. Ladies and gentlemen, the Supporting Actor "race" is over. (It was over a couple of weeks ago, but now it's oficially done).  

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Predicted: 4/5

Who knew? Doubt did get its screenplay and 4 acting noms without the big one. The 5 big contenders here made the cut, there was no need to leave one out, Winslet got kicked out from here and placed in Lead. Taraji and Amy, who were the fighters for the last spot got lucky and both made it. Now, (just like last year), predicting the winner is gonna be hard. The hardest category of them all. Why? Winslet got the 2 big ones given out so far. From the 2 left, she was nominated in lead at one (BAFTA) and she's probably gonna take the other one (SAG). The front runner is out of the way and all of them might have a chance to grab it. So basically, the small awards are the ones indicating us who will win, or who has the most buzz. The only guide we'll have is whoever wins the BAFTA, which rules out Henson and Davis since they weren't nominated. Early front runner Cruz might look as the obvious choice, but after her consecutive wins at the critic awards, her buzz has faded away and she's barely got more recognition since. We all know last minute buzz beats the early front runner quite often. This being the case, Tomei would benefit (but she's the only previous winner in the category, they might want to spread the wealth). Adams and Davis have a split vote on their way and that's not gonna help. However, Davis has the baitiest role of the bunch, and she's a "scene-stealer" with little screentime, the type of performance the Academy goes gaga for. The only way Henson might get it is to console Button's major loses, or if there's enough support for her film to sweep, which isn't likely. At this point I'll predict Cruz for the win, but don't be surprised if this prediction changes often for the next month. Definitely a tough race this will be.