Last Minute SAG Predictions

Well it's really late and just a couple of minutes before the show, so I'll be quick. For Best Ensemble, it's pretty much SAG favorite Doubt vs. Milk. However, Slumdog has been bulldozing the awards, so if the SAG jump at the bandwagon don't be surprised. I'll go with Doubt, simply because of its 4 nods. For Actor, the SAG tend to prefer the old respected veterans, so even though the Rourke vs. Penn fight will continue all the way to the Oscars, expect Penn here, or even Langella. For Actress, due to the same reasons as Actor, Meryl Streep should have no problem taking the award, with Hathaway and Winslet as spoilers. Ledger ought to take Supporting Actor in a cake walk, and Winslet won't go empty handed, after her Oscar noms and her Globe win her buzz keeps growing, she'll take supporting. However, if thse two are going to be upset at any awards it'll be here, Downey Jr and Cruz as the possibilities, but it's not likely. So....these is how my predictions go: 

Best Cast: Doubt

Best Actor: Sean Penn in Milk

Best Actress: Meryl Streep in Doubt

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet in The Reader

The causes of these......not a lot of changes. As I said, even with Penn's win here, Rourke and Langella are not entirely out. Streep needed this to show she has a chance at Actress, but if Winslet wins ANY of the 2, her win is pretty much assured. Ledger was a lock weeks ago, so no biggie. The only thing that will also be a lock is Slumdog Millionaire to take the Best Picture Oscar. Basically it already is a lock, but if even the un-recognizable cast of the movie is recognized it means that not even if all the other films together join forces and combine their voted can Slumdog be stopped from taking the gold.

Oscar Nominations Announced

Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Predicted: 4/5
I honestly thought that either WALL*E or The Dark Knight would get in, The Reader was my second spoiler. The Academy had the chance of nominating a film loved by critics and the people. They REALLY screwed up. Of this lineup, I'm only missing the likely winner, Slumdog. Milk would probably be my least favorite film from here, but no big mistake other than the exclusion of WALL*E and The Dark Knight. All of these are fine films, the only problem I would have is if Button or Milk end up winning.

Best Achievement in Directing
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Predicted: 3/5
I had Aronofsky and Nolan instead of Van Sant and Daldry. One of the most shocking snubs: Nolan. I would've bet that even if the film failed to score the BP nom, Nolan would make the cut. I suspected Daldry would get in if The Reader got in, I was right. He's got a perfect score so far with the Academy, expect him to become the next Eastwood. Unless one of the films gets lots of last minute buzz (urgently, Slumdog is getting further away each day), more likely Button's lots of nods get the film last minute powerful buzz, expect to see Slumdog rising on February the 22nd. No upsets here.  

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Predicted: 4/5
Nice to see Jenkins in, and no pity nom for Eastwood. It saddens me not to see DiCaprio, and it saddens me even more that Pitt got in over him. I had Eastwood over Pitt in my predictions, and I feel silly for believing Pitt wouldn't make it. Colin Farrell would've been an inspired choice , but his snub (and DiCaprio's) were expected. The other 4 are pretty good, and any of them would be worthy winners, but as you know, I'm cheering for Rourke. Pitt and Jenkins will not win. So we have 3 left: Langella, Rourke and Penn. Penn are Rourke are strong enough, whoever takes the SAG this Sunday will get the edge (I'm predicting Penn). Then, the only way Rourke might be back in shape to K.O. Penn will be if the BAFTA rewards him, which is possible but not likely. However, if this Rourke/Penn split continues, don't be surprised if the splitting votes end up and benefit the 3rd in line, Langella, rising with a surprise win only because the voters were too divided between Penn and Rourke.  

Best Actress in a Leading
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Predicted: 3.5/5
The bets are on, things have just completely changed. As expected, Hathaway, Jolie and Streep got in. Winslet also got in, as expected, however, it was a surprise for most of us to hear her name called for her work in The Reader, and being shut out for Revolutionary Road. Leo knocked out Hawkins, which is not what I predicted, but it's still not surprising. However, me thinks the exciting unpredictable race we've had all season long has just cleared up: Winslet's taking it (finally!). She no longer has to fear the problem of spliting votes with her other performance. The Reader got in for Picture and Director, she's the only one of the lineup with this advantage. With her awesome year, her baity role, no more vote plitting, likely BAFTA and SAG wins coming on her way, no big opponent (Lee, Hathaway and Streep may give her a run for her money but neither is strong enough this time to take it from her) and her film getting love I'll predict from today that this February 22nd Kate Winslet wins her first Oscar for an Actress in a Leading Role. The thing now is.....with Winslet out of the way, who's taking Supporting Actress?

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger,  The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Predicted: 4/5

No big surprises here. As expected Ledger got in, followed by his category partners all season long: Brolin, Downey Jr and Hoffman. The 5th slot was pretty open, so as long as Marsan, Shannon, Patel, Fiennes or Franco got in there would be no shocks. I thought that with the Slumdog love all around Patel would get pulled in. I guess Shannon will have to be Revolutionary's consolation prize. However, it's not as if the other 4 nominees matter, they're fillers, Ledger's got this one in the bag. He bulldozed the critic awards, he has the BFCA and the Globe now, and he's just missing the BAFTA and the SAG to collect before he stops at the Kodak Theatre for the big one. Unless one of the major 3 contenders miraclously takes both (yep, taking one of the two big awards left is not gonna be enough), Ledger might have someone threatening his win. But at this point (and with the Batman snub in Picture) it's just waiting time for Ledger. Ladies and gentlemen, the Supporting Actor "race" is over. (It was over a couple of weeks ago, but now it's oficially done).  

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Predicted: 4/5

Who knew? Doubt did get its screenplay and 4 acting noms without the big one. The 5 big contenders here made the cut, there was no need to leave one out, Winslet got kicked out from here and placed in Lead. Taraji and Amy, who were the fighters for the last spot got lucky and both made it. Now, (just like last year), predicting the winner is gonna be hard. The hardest category of them all. Why? Winslet got the 2 big ones given out so far. From the 2 left, she was nominated in lead at one (BAFTA) and she's probably gonna take the other one (SAG). The front runner is out of the way and all of them might have a chance to grab it. So basically, the small awards are the ones indicating us who will win, or who has the most buzz. The only guide we'll have is whoever wins the BAFTA, which rules out Henson and Davis since they weren't nominated. Early front runner Cruz might look as the obvious choice, but after her consecutive wins at the critic awards, her buzz has faded away and she's barely got more recognition since. We all know last minute buzz beats the early front runner quite often. This being the case, Tomei would benefit (but she's the only previous winner in the category, they might want to spread the wealth). Adams and Davis have a split vote on their way and that's not gonna help. However, Davis has the baitiest role of the bunch, and she's a "scene-stealer" with little screentime, the type of performance the Academy goes gaga for. The only way Henson might get it is to console Button's major loses, or if there's enough support for her film to sweep, which isn't likely. At this point I'll predict Cruz for the win, but don't be surprised if this prediction changes often for the next month. Definitely a tough race this will be.  

My Final Oscar Predictions

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The guilds have spoken, and for the first time in a very long time, producers, directors and writers agreed on their 5 Best Films of the years. It would seem we had our Best Picture lineup complete, but did we? You can never count out Clint Eastwood (Changeling and Gran Torino) when it comes to the Oscars, and The Reader popped up here and there, so possibly. The Wrestler ironically received some of the best reviews of the year but keeps being left out at many Best Picture lineups. Will the Academy take notice too later? Revolutionary Road turned out to be to depressing for some, and it has become the "love it"-"boring" film of the year, Kate & Leo's reunion won't be enough to push it in. It all indicates the predicted 5 ARE going to be our easy predicted lineup. BUT...... 

There is one out field option that may sneak in one way or another: the animated gem that is WALL*E. Why? It wasn't nominated at the guilds, well here's the thing....being an animated film it wasn't eligible. So, the problem now is, we don't know how much the guilds really loved it. Enough to make it to the lineup, or even if eligible it would have been snubbed. Being the 2nd film with the most "Best Picture" awards (just behind the far ahead front runner-Slumdog) is not an easy accomplishement, and it clarfies that there is love for the film. Now, is there enough love for it to make the final 5? The only thing against it: that dreadful animated ghetto "Best Animated Film", which may look like enough recognition for some to give the film. 

As for the other 5, Slumdog Millionaire rests safely at the lead of the race and has the "lock" status.  Button has the 10+ technical noms that will probably come along to help the film make it. The Dark Knight has it's monster big office and Ledger's win (YES, it's a secured win) helping. Now, are Milk and Frost/Nixon equally safe? I'll say Nixon is ahead due to the political theme, the Globe nom that Milk missed and the older branch going behind it. Besides, the "proudly gay" theme from Milk may not apply to everyone, Brokeback Mountain anyone?

The predicted five...

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL*E 

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Don't Count Out: Milk

Could Sneak In: The Reader

Wishful Thinking: The Wrestler or WALL*E

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The two current front runners should have absolutely no problem getting in, Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler in his major comeback and Sean Penn in Milk can prepare their tuxedos. Though Frank Langella's Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon has fallen behind, he should have no problem getting in either. If anyone's to steal the win from the 2 

front runners, it's him. Now, here's the thing gets complicated. We have 4 possible nominees, each with things against 

them and helping them. First of all, Mr. Clint Eastwood in what 

according to him it's his last acting role in Gran Torino. The Academy loves Clint, and since the film is probably missing at the Best Picture lineup, they're obviously gonna want to reward him somewhere, why not with his last acting role? Besides, Eastwood only has 1 precursor award supporting him, however he got in 2 previous times with none, so it means Clint is capable of getting in even without previous attention. Then, we have long due veteran Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. He's a long respected actor in the industry and he gives his career best work. Critics asked for a nom for him back in April, and the Academy loves to hand out "honorary" nominations a la Ruby Dee last year. His problem? The film was released 8 months ago, the Academy doesn't have that great memory and his film is too small competing against this monsters. Then, we have Leonardo DiCaprio as Frank in Revolutionary Road. Critics called it his career best, and he has been nominated 3 previous times. Then why the hell is Winslet getting all the love and he's being snubbed? He's young, a previous nominee and the Academy likes him, so possibly.  Finally, we have Brad Pitt as the aging back fella in Benjamin Button. He has the "4 big ones": BFCA, GG, SAG and BAFTA. Why is he in doubt? Simply because he's Brad Pitt. His wife got shut out last year even with almost the same precursors as him. Besides, all that makeup doesn't help either. Some may think his performance is more due to the effects than him. Colin Farrell's Globe win may help, but it was too late and the field is far too crowded.   

The predicted five....

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Sean Penn, Milk

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Don't Count Out: Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Sneak In: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Wishful Thinking: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Best Actress in a Leading Role

VERY open field. The winner is still up in the air, but I think predicting the nominees will be easier than it seems. Jolie and Streep were the only constant ones during all the season, they're in. Jolie did have enough precursors and buzz last year but she still missed, will they do the same this year? Doubtful, she has even more precursors than last year. Winslet's double SAG, BAFTA and Globe noms (double Globe wins) would make it seem she's a lock. However, the possible split vote she may suffer from having two acclaimed performances 

still negates her the "lock" status. AND, she has gotten more love for her role in The Reader, which many argue in which she's lead, not supporting as campaigned. Rememer member can vote for who they want in the category they please, and actors are not allowed to be double nominated in the same category. 

Can she get shut out for Road and surprise for The Reader? Hathaway only 

missed the BAFTA, but she has the BFCA win, she's young and it's her breakthrough. She's in. Now for the 5th spot...

After sweeping the small critic awards, Sally Hawkins would look like a lock and even possible threat to win. But, no SAG? Not even BAFTA? And they love their Brits. This puts to doubt if she was as strong as many thought, or she was nothing but the critic's darling. Most of the time, these ones get in, the problem is, she was shut out by the industry, and guess who votes at the Oscars? Then we have Melissa Leo's powerful turn in Frozen River. Actors love her, and she's a respected actress looking for her breakthrough. The actors vote may be enough for her to get in. However, her film is really small, and it seems like she may only get support from the actors branch. Then we have Scott-Thomas, an acclaimed performance that was heading for the win. What happened? She disappeared, her buzz reduced considerably. Only with the Globe and BAFTA nom backing her up (which she's not winning) it looks like she's too weak to knock out any of her fellow contenders.  I'll go an say Leo and Hawkins are the fighters for the 5th spot, and if anyone is a true "lock" it's Oscar Queen Streep. The field is sooooo open that don't be surprised if even Jolie, Winslet or Hathaway miss. 

The predicted five....

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

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Don't Count Out: Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Could Sneak In: Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long or Winslet may get in for her other role in The Reader.

Wishful Thinking: As long as Streep and Winslet are in, I'm fine. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Ledger's in, and he's winning, next! It looks like the 3 following spots are also a pretty safe thing: Downey Jr, Hoffman 

and Brolin have been present all season and they're not stepping

back. What's the complicated part here? The 5th slot is pretty much open for any contenders. Dev Patel 

may get pulled in with all the Slumdog mania going around. Then, Michael Shannon's 7 minute role in Revolutionary Road seems as baity  as a role can go: mental disorder, over-the-top, he shouts, he says the hurtful truth and according to most critics when he's on screen he steals the show from Kate & Leo. Then, Fiennes and his 3 powerful roles: In Bruges, The Duchess and The Reader. He's had a hell of a year, and he would be the occupier of the 5th slot if it wasn't for the big split vote going on here. Can they all agree which of his performances he deserves the recognition for? We also have Brad Pitt in Burn After Reading, BAFTA nominated and his Button turn may make the voters wanting to reward him, especially when the Actor's field is so crowded. James Franco in Milk could jump along the train, but Brolin's got all the Milk votes here. At last, we have Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky who may get in only if there's love for its film.

The predicted five....

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

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 Don't Count Out: Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading and Ralph Fiennes

Could Sneak In: James Franco, Milk

Wishful Thinking: Ledger's the only one I care about so....

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis and Kate Winslet have appeared everywhere, including the small critic awards and the big ones, they're in. The only one I'm still iffy about is Winslet, if enough people consider her role Lead she may get 

votes in lead and here and just not make it in either. 

Although she's popped up everywhere as supporting so I think she's safe. Marisa Tomei's pole dancer in The Wrestler also has more than enough precursors, and she's the lady with the most small critic awards, she's the powerful critic's darling. The only problem she has is the fact that she missed the most important one: the SAG. It shouldn't matter much since she was also snubbed back in 2001 and still made it in, so I say she's safe. Taraji P. Henson's "Moma" in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and the other Doubt lady are the ones fighting for that last spot. Both got the SAG, but Adams got the Globe and the BAFTA. She has edge. Then again, Doubt's possible Best Picture nomination is still alive only because of its cast. Will they really give this movie 4 acting nominations without the top honor? Besides, Davis is likely to get more #1 votes than Adams. The only possibly spoiler is Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. Only a couple of critic awards keep her alive, she missed the SAG, BAFTA and Globes. Will she really be able to take Adams' or Henson's place?

The predicted five....

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Kate Winslet, The Reader

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Don't Count Out: Traji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Sneak In: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married 

Wishful Thinking: That Winslet can pull off her double nod.

Best Director

Fincher and the likely winner Boyle can rest assured their noms are on their way. Even if The Dark Knight missed the Best Picture lineup, I think Chris Nolan can also be called a safe bet. Now, on the other hand, even if Frost/Nixon gets at the main category, Howard is still very likely to miss the lineup. His film is an acting showcase and the screenplay is the strongest point, not his bleak direction. Then, we also have Van Sant, Daldry, Stanton and Aronofsky. Stanton could easily sneak in if it wasn't that his film was animated. The Wrestler and Milk may have a better chance here, especially if they think their films are good enough for this makeup award, just not the "big one". Daldry will only get in if The Reader make it, which is doubtful. The only outside shot is Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, but her star is on shaky ground so I doubt Leigh will be able to pull it off. Seeing as I think WALL*E will get in, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Picture and Director match 3-5 this year.  

The predicted five....

Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

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Don't Count Out: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Could Sneak In: Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Wishful Thinking: Andrew Stanton, WALL*E

Best Original Screenplay

Even without the Picture nom, Milk is pretty much a sure bet here. WALL*E would be too if it wasn't for the lack of dialogue. Then we have the indie comedies Rachel Getting Married, The Visitor, In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky fighting for a place here. The scripts from the "good but not great" films of respected directors like Woody Allen's Vicky 

Cristina Barcelona and the Coen Bros. Burn After Reading can pprobably get recognition here. Also, the Eastwood flicks may make a surprise appearance here. I'll go with the most loved films of the bunch. And if In Bruges is gonna get anything at all, it'll be in here.

The predicted five....

Happy-Go-Lucky

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

WALL*E

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Don't Count Out: The Visitor

Could Sneak In: Burn After Reading

Wishful Thinking: In Bruges

Best Adapted Screenplay

Even without the Best Picture nom, I think this lineup is pretty safe. The Curious Case of 

Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Doubt and

  Frost/Nixon are all pretty safe. Almost 

"locks". The Dark Knight's WGA nod over The Reader and Revolutionary Road helped it a lot, besides the fact it's probably in for Best Picture while the other two aren't. The only possible 

spoiler is the one that can spoil the Best Picture lineup: The Reader. Besides, The Dark Knight's screenplay is not his strongest point so it could be left out in order to honor a Picture-less movie. 

The predicted five....

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

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Don't Count Out: The Dark Knight

Could Sneak In: Revolutionary Road

Wishful Thinking: Revolutionary Road

Beautiful Revolutionary Road FYCs from Awards Daily

It's sad to realize how ineffective they turned out to be, but they're still amazing. Here are some ads for the FYC campaign from my most expected film for the past 2 years. 

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Review

*Spoilers*

It definitely arrived as one of the most anticipated films of the year. Fight Club's David Fincher and his already known pal Brad Pitt join forces with Cate Blanchett into one of the biggest productions of the last years. Sadly to say, it's not one of the best productions of the past years. Is it great? Yes it is, but it's still far from being the best of the year. I must sadly admit I'm still missing 10 or 15 "quality" or expected productions, including the critics' darling, Slumdog Millinaire. Even now, Button fails to receive a mention as one of the 5 year's best. 

The story begins in a hospital during the year 2005, we're in New Orleans just when hurricane "Katrina" is about to hit. From there, Blanchett as Daisy in her deathbed begins to unfold the story of the main character, Benjamin Button. From there we our hero evolve from being a baby looking as an old man in his 80s, all the way to his ultimate day as a newborn baby. During his lifetime Benjamin will become a sailor, fall in love, fight at the World War II, have a child and travel around the world. 

Sincerely, I dunno if I was watching several films at once or I just completely missed the point.  The film tries to explain in a very unique way the value of each stage in life, from old age to youth. However, Fincher's film is such a mess that it just counters itself. Though I loved Benjamin's adoptive mother, Queenie and Daisy definitely steals the show, I must admit I didn't care once for any character. Fincher's major problem is that while he tries to get us involved into the story, he also tries to add other elements that simply don't go along with the story. How can we possibly cry at Queenie's death when we have just laughed at a dirty joke or been through a war fight? It's hard to concentrate in the story as once, and Fincher just misses it's chance. A "rollercoaster of emotions" would probably be the best way to describe the film. 

This will probably be among the Oscar's Best Picture lineup of the year, but if I could, I would argue against it. It's production achievements are phenomenal. I was amazed more than once at the way the makeup and the effects worked during the film. Should the film be recognized in the production categories, I won't complain but only agree.  It runs way too long, and I blame the editing and the direction for it, not the screenplay. Actually, I found the screenplay to be one of the best aspect's of the entire film. 

Meanwhile, in the acting department it's Taraji P. Henson as Queenie and Cate Blanchett as Daisy the performers who save the film from being a total disaster. If it hadn't been for them, I would have fallen asleep after the first 30 minutes. Actually, when Brad Pitt goes alone to his journey, the film starts to fall apart, slow and boring. However Blanchett reappaers as Daisy just in time to save the film. Honestly, it's during the final hour where Daisy's role becomes more significant that the film becomes gripping and interesting. Sadly, it's too late. 

It's not surprising to see Blanchett hand in her homework with an A+, as she always does. And although the film has it's own supporting player marvels, the sole lead of the film, Brad Pitt, fails in every sense of the word as the leading man of such production. Mr. Pitt does absolutely nothing with the character the way Blanchett did, to me it seemed as he just allowed the makeup to speak and act for him. He has some brilliant scenes I must admit (mostly his older years, his first walking steps for example) but then, during most of the film Pitt does nothing but stand there. A suggestion for Mr. Fincher, next time get an actor with a strong screen presence that can carry the weight of such a inmense film and not a good friend of yours in the leading role. 

However, it is not Blanchett the true star of the film, but the sensible and deeply touching Taraji P. Henson. If I ever cared for anyone in the film, it was her. Sadly, I don't see it in their future, but an Actress nomination for Blanchett and a Supporting Actress nomination for Henson at the Oscars would be more than deserved. 

It'll probably remain in my Top 15 of the year, but if it doesn't, don't be surprised. Other than some Art Direction, Costume Design, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Score (now this was great) and the Makeup (even more amazing) recognition, sorry but I'll complain if this receives the top honors this year for Directing or as a film. Very good film, but come on....we all know Fincher was capable of doing it, they had a masterpice in their hands and they let it go. *sigh* 

RATING: 8/10