My Final Oscar Predictions

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The guilds have spoken, and for the first time in a very long time, producers, directors and writers agreed on their 5 Best Films of the years. It would seem we had our Best Picture lineup complete, but did we? You can never count out Clint Eastwood (Changeling and Gran Torino) when it comes to the Oscars, and The Reader popped up here and there, so possibly. The Wrestler ironically received some of the best reviews of the year but keeps being left out at many Best Picture lineups. Will the Academy take notice too later? Revolutionary Road turned out to be to depressing for some, and it has become the "love it"-"boring" film of the year, Kate & Leo's reunion won't be enough to push it in. It all indicates the predicted 5 ARE going to be our easy predicted lineup. BUT...... 

There is one out field option that may sneak in one way or another: the animated gem that is WALL*E. Why? It wasn't nominated at the guilds, well here's the thing....being an animated film it wasn't eligible. So, the problem now is, we don't know how much the guilds really loved it. Enough to make it to the lineup, or even if eligible it would have been snubbed. Being the 2nd film with the most "Best Picture" awards (just behind the far ahead front runner-Slumdog) is not an easy accomplishement, and it clarfies that there is love for the film. Now, is there enough love for it to make the final 5? The only thing against it: that dreadful animated ghetto "Best Animated Film", which may look like enough recognition for some to give the film. 

As for the other 5, Slumdog Millionaire rests safely at the lead of the race and has the "lock" status.  Button has the 10+ technical noms that will probably come along to help the film make it. The Dark Knight has it's monster big office and Ledger's win (YES, it's a secured win) helping. Now, are Milk and Frost/Nixon equally safe? I'll say Nixon is ahead due to the political theme, the Globe nom that Milk missed and the older branch going behind it. Besides, the "proudly gay" theme from Milk may not apply to everyone, Brokeback Mountain anyone?

The predicted five...

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL*E 

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Don't Count Out: Milk

Could Sneak In: The Reader

Wishful Thinking: The Wrestler or WALL*E

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The two current front runners should have absolutely no problem getting in, Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler in his major comeback and Sean Penn in Milk can prepare their tuxedos. Though Frank Langella's Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon has fallen behind, he should have no problem getting in either. If anyone's to steal the win from the 2 

front runners, it's him. Now, here's the thing gets complicated. We have 4 possible nominees, each with things against 

them and helping them. First of all, Mr. Clint Eastwood in what 

according to him it's his last acting role in Gran Torino. The Academy loves Clint, and since the film is probably missing at the Best Picture lineup, they're obviously gonna want to reward him somewhere, why not with his last acting role? Besides, Eastwood only has 1 precursor award supporting him, however he got in 2 previous times with none, so it means Clint is capable of getting in even without previous attention. Then, we have long due veteran Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. He's a long respected actor in the industry and he gives his career best work. Critics asked for a nom for him back in April, and the Academy loves to hand out "honorary" nominations a la Ruby Dee last year. His problem? The film was released 8 months ago, the Academy doesn't have that great memory and his film is too small competing against this monsters. Then, we have Leonardo DiCaprio as Frank in Revolutionary Road. Critics called it his career best, and he has been nominated 3 previous times. Then why the hell is Winslet getting all the love and he's being snubbed? He's young, a previous nominee and the Academy likes him, so possibly.  Finally, we have Brad Pitt as the aging back fella in Benjamin Button. He has the "4 big ones": BFCA, GG, SAG and BAFTA. Why is he in doubt? Simply because he's Brad Pitt. His wife got shut out last year even with almost the same precursors as him. Besides, all that makeup doesn't help either. Some may think his performance is more due to the effects than him. Colin Farrell's Globe win may help, but it was too late and the field is far too crowded.   

The predicted five....

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Sean Penn, Milk

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Don't Count Out: Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Sneak In: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Wishful Thinking: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Best Actress in a Leading Role

VERY open field. The winner is still up in the air, but I think predicting the nominees will be easier than it seems. Jolie and Streep were the only constant ones during all the season, they're in. Jolie did have enough precursors and buzz last year but she still missed, will they do the same this year? Doubtful, she has even more precursors than last year. Winslet's double SAG, BAFTA and Globe noms (double Globe wins) would make it seem she's a lock. However, the possible split vote she may suffer from having two acclaimed performances 

still negates her the "lock" status. AND, she has gotten more love for her role in The Reader, which many argue in which she's lead, not supporting as campaigned. Rememer member can vote for who they want in the category they please, and actors are not allowed to be double nominated in the same category. 

Can she get shut out for Road and surprise for The Reader? Hathaway only 

missed the BAFTA, but she has the BFCA win, she's young and it's her breakthrough. She's in. Now for the 5th spot...

After sweeping the small critic awards, Sally Hawkins would look like a lock and even possible threat to win. But, no SAG? Not even BAFTA? And they love their Brits. This puts to doubt if she was as strong as many thought, or she was nothing but the critic's darling. Most of the time, these ones get in, the problem is, she was shut out by the industry, and guess who votes at the Oscars? Then we have Melissa Leo's powerful turn in Frozen River. Actors love her, and she's a respected actress looking for her breakthrough. The actors vote may be enough for her to get in. However, her film is really small, and it seems like she may only get support from the actors branch. Then we have Scott-Thomas, an acclaimed performance that was heading for the win. What happened? She disappeared, her buzz reduced considerably. Only with the Globe and BAFTA nom backing her up (which she's not winning) it looks like she's too weak to knock out any of her fellow contenders.  I'll go an say Leo and Hawkins are the fighters for the 5th spot, and if anyone is a true "lock" it's Oscar Queen Streep. The field is sooooo open that don't be surprised if even Jolie, Winslet or Hathaway miss. 

The predicted five....

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

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Don't Count Out: Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Could Sneak In: Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long or Winslet may get in for her other role in The Reader.

Wishful Thinking: As long as Streep and Winslet are in, I'm fine. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Ledger's in, and he's winning, next! It looks like the 3 following spots are also a pretty safe thing: Downey Jr, Hoffman 

and Brolin have been present all season and they're not stepping

back. What's the complicated part here? The 5th slot is pretty much open for any contenders. Dev Patel 

may get pulled in with all the Slumdog mania going around. Then, Michael Shannon's 7 minute role in Revolutionary Road seems as baity  as a role can go: mental disorder, over-the-top, he shouts, he says the hurtful truth and according to most critics when he's on screen he steals the show from Kate & Leo. Then, Fiennes and his 3 powerful roles: In Bruges, The Duchess and The Reader. He's had a hell of a year, and he would be the occupier of the 5th slot if it wasn't for the big split vote going on here. Can they all agree which of his performances he deserves the recognition for? We also have Brad Pitt in Burn After Reading, BAFTA nominated and his Button turn may make the voters wanting to reward him, especially when the Actor's field is so crowded. James Franco in Milk could jump along the train, but Brolin's got all the Milk votes here. At last, we have Eddie Marsan in Happy-Go-Lucky who may get in only if there's love for its film.

The predicted five....

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

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 Don't Count Out: Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading and Ralph Fiennes

Could Sneak In: James Franco, Milk

Wishful Thinking: Ledger's the only one I care about so....

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis and Kate Winslet have appeared everywhere, including the small critic awards and the big ones, they're in. The only one I'm still iffy about is Winslet, if enough people consider her role Lead she may get 

votes in lead and here and just not make it in either. 

Although she's popped up everywhere as supporting so I think she's safe. Marisa Tomei's pole dancer in The Wrestler also has more than enough precursors, and she's the lady with the most small critic awards, she's the powerful critic's darling. The only problem she has is the fact that she missed the most important one: the SAG. It shouldn't matter much since she was also snubbed back in 2001 and still made it in, so I say she's safe. Taraji P. Henson's "Moma" in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and the other Doubt lady are the ones fighting for that last spot. Both got the SAG, but Adams got the Globe and the BAFTA. She has edge. Then again, Doubt's possible Best Picture nomination is still alive only because of its cast. Will they really give this movie 4 acting nominations without the top honor? Besides, Davis is likely to get more #1 votes than Adams. The only possibly spoiler is Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. Only a couple of critic awards keep her alive, she missed the SAG, BAFTA and Globes. Will she really be able to take Adams' or Henson's place?

The predicted five....

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Kate Winslet, The Reader

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Don't Count Out: Traji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Could Sneak In: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married 

Wishful Thinking: That Winslet can pull off her double nod.

Best Director

Fincher and the likely winner Boyle can rest assured their noms are on their way. Even if The Dark Knight missed the Best Picture lineup, I think Chris Nolan can also be called a safe bet. Now, on the other hand, even if Frost/Nixon gets at the main category, Howard is still very likely to miss the lineup. His film is an acting showcase and the screenplay is the strongest point, not his bleak direction. Then, we also have Van Sant, Daldry, Stanton and Aronofsky. Stanton could easily sneak in if it wasn't that his film was animated. The Wrestler and Milk may have a better chance here, especially if they think their films are good enough for this makeup award, just not the "big one". Daldry will only get in if The Reader make it, which is doubtful. The only outside shot is Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, but her star is on shaky ground so I doubt Leigh will be able to pull it off. Seeing as I think WALL*E will get in, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Picture and Director match 3-5 this year.  

The predicted five....

Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

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Don't Count Out: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Could Sneak In: Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Wishful Thinking: Andrew Stanton, WALL*E

Best Original Screenplay

Even without the Picture nom, Milk is pretty much a sure bet here. WALL*E would be too if it wasn't for the lack of dialogue. Then we have the indie comedies Rachel Getting Married, The Visitor, In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky fighting for a place here. The scripts from the "good but not great" films of respected directors like Woody Allen's Vicky 

Cristina Barcelona and the Coen Bros. Burn After Reading can pprobably get recognition here. Also, the Eastwood flicks may make a surprise appearance here. I'll go with the most loved films of the bunch. And if In Bruges is gonna get anything at all, it'll be in here.

The predicted five....

Happy-Go-Lucky

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

WALL*E

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Don't Count Out: The Visitor

Could Sneak In: Burn After Reading

Wishful Thinking: In Bruges

Best Adapted Screenplay

Even without the Best Picture nom, I think this lineup is pretty safe. The Curious Case of 

Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Doubt and

  Frost/Nixon are all pretty safe. Almost 

"locks". The Dark Knight's WGA nod over The Reader and Revolutionary Road helped it a lot, besides the fact it's probably in for Best Picture while the other two aren't. The only possible 

spoiler is the one that can spoil the Best Picture lineup: The Reader. Besides, The Dark Knight's screenplay is not his strongest point so it could be left out in order to honor a Picture-less movie. 

The predicted five....

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

The Reader

Slumdog Millionaire

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Don't Count Out: The Dark Knight

Could Sneak In: Revolutionary Road

Wishful Thinking: Revolutionary Road