In probably my favorite category, it was tough seeing as how it's easier to be a young unrecognized face and get in, while they also like to praise known veterans.
and the nominees are...
Abbie Cornish as Fanny Brawne in Bright Star
Like I said, if this really is Jane Campion's "comeback" then expect it to be grand. So I see it as a big player furing awards season. If your memory doesn't fail you, last time Campion showed us her talent, she took an Oscar home for Original Screenplay, while her two gals walked away with the acting categories (Holly Hunter and young Anna Paquin). If Campion delivers, I see her new leading gal getting attention again.
Carey Mulligan as Jenny in An Education
Oscar likes them young. The average age for a winner here is 27 years old! Lately we've seen newcomers to the category invited with a nomination or even a win in their first try. The film looks interesting and she has the lead role. If she's able to carry the whole film by herself, the fact that she's only 24 won't matter.
Michelle Pfeiffer as Lea de Lonval in Cheri
She's la Pfeiffer...oh wait. The last time she was nominated was 27 years ago, ouch. So no, she's not the big player some think, or at least she's not anymore. Either way, Frears normally has luck with his leading leadies, so this can possibly mean her comeback at the ceremony. However, I don't have that much faith in her anymore. Early reviews (AND the trailer seemed to cofirm this) say it's mostly Bates' show, so she may end up being forgotten. And honestly, seeing the release date and the trailer, this is not going to get major noms other than for the pretty costumes (Pfeiffer looks mesmerixing in that pic) and sets in it to look at.
Emily Watson as Evgenia Ginzburg in Within the Whirlwind
It's a biopic where she uses an accent AND she suffers and cries a lot. Unless she reaches the "ridiculous" line I think she's pretty safe. She's respected in the industry and is a previous nominee, if her campaing succeeds I think she may finally win. However, it's a small film, Oscar doesn't dig small too often.
Renee Zellweger in My Own Love Song
WOW 4 roles in a single year: 2 aimed at people and 2 aimed at critics. She teams up with the director that lead Cotillard to her winning turn in La Vie en Rose 2 years ago. She's a previous winner in the supporting category, with 2 failed attempts at leading. She plays a character with disabilities. It's been a while, if she delivers, she can get in.
just in case, my 6th close option was...Saoirse Ronan as Susie Salmon in The Lovely Bones
I want her to get in. I really do, and this is probably my most anticipated performance in this category. Ronan has proved herself as an actress, a magnificent young actress, and already an Oscar nominee. She has the leading role in this film, but knowing Oscar, if it's a child = supporting. Hopefully, that previous nominee status helps her get her right placement. I've read the novel, and there's basically no way Jackson can take down the role to supporting in the film unless he changes the whole story.
Well, Ronan is definitely something to watch out for. I'm a Zellweger fan, even if her recent works have been major letdowns, so I hope this is a "back to shape" year and she delivers. Pfeiffer....*sigh* I had so much hope for Pfeiffer, and what I saw in the trailer let me down immensely. I can no longer see her get the win I wanted, and I'm not even sure if a nom. An Education looks acting wise: brilliant, so I have big hopes for Mulligan. And well, Campion can definitely make her actresses do great things, not only Hunter, but Winlset in Holy Smoke! too. So, possibly Cornish is a surprise to come. Watson? meh....I'll be sincere, I've never loved her as an actress, I think she repeats herself too much (not exactly the role, but her performances). I'll have an open mind, but I doubt she impresses me. And though it may be a mistake, I don't think the pumped Gabourey Sibide in Precious can score a nod. I may be wrong, but I just don't see the film being an Oscar hit (and I have no interest in it, not even to see Mo'Nique).
As for the ones not mentioned here, we have Cannes winner Charlotte Gainsburg in Antichrist, but I h-a-t-e Lars Von Trier, so I doubt she will get in or that she's something I'll enjoy. I just have the feeling Cruz will split votes in the two categories, but that doesn't mean her new collaboration with Almodóvar, Los Abrazos Rotos, is something I'm not anticipating a lot. We also have Rachel Weisz in 3 new projects and McAdams with what might be her first baity role The Time Traveler's Wife, I'm pumped as hell to see her in it (I think she's one of the best young actresses out there). And while I think it looks corny as hell and doesn't stand a chance, fans still stand up for Sarah Michelle Gellar in Veronika Decides to Die. Oh and last, but not least, Helen Mirren has a bunch of projects coming out, so she is bound to either get attention or split the votes. I think the latter. But, I want to see her in The Last Station and Love Ranch (welcome back Joe Pesci!!!) sooooo much.
No I didn't forget Tautou in Coco Avant Chanel or Hilary Swank in Amelia. I just have 0 faith in either. I love Tautou, but it doesn't look the movie or her performance will be anything special. And I've never thought Swank was much of an actress, just a one-hit-wonder when she gets roles meant for men (LOL), and seeing the material, I doubt she can get it right.
Oh and I think I already have one prediction completely wrong: Mrs. Streep in Julie & Julia as supporting. By the looks of the trailer and the new poster, I doubt Streep will be supporting, and if by the trailer I already think this, with the right campaign she can easily get in lead. Besides, she has that Nancy Meyers project coming out too.
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